FTfm: Fixed Income
The Financial Times proposes to publish this FT Report on January 27, 2025
We plan to include the following features (please note that this list is provisional):
Is There a Future for Traditional Bond Funds?
Investors are avoiding traditional actively-managed bond funds and preferring to use either low-cost exchange traded funds or alternative fixed-income assets such as private credit and infrastructure debt funds, says BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. He has called this the “barbell effect” - because it looks like money is collecting at the two far ends of the spectrum. It is similar to the division in equity investment, where investors are bifurcated between passive index funds and high-fee private equity funds. But what will this mean for conventional bond funds? Do they still have a use? Or do their returns no longer justify their fees?
Is the Trump Trade to Buy Bonds? Or Equities?
Investors have long been preparing for a second Donald Trump presidency. And the one outcome they seem to agree on is inflation. A big increase in trade tariffs, and tax cuts for businesses and wealthy individuals, plus deregulation look like a recipe for higher stocks and higher inflation, which is bad for bond prices. But, when it looked more likely Trump would win, and create geopolitical chaos by abandoning Europe and Taiwan, bond prices rose. Investors sought safety in US Treasuries government bonds —the go-to asset in times of geopolitical stress. So will Trump's isolationist, protectionist, populism be good or bad for fixed-income investors?
Will Lower Inflation mean Higher Demand for Bonds?
With inflation finally falling after years of rising prices, bonds appear to offer a reasonable return, again. In Britain, the 10-year government bond yields 4.2 per cent, while in the US, the equivalent Treasury bond offers 4.4 per cent. Assuming that central banks manage to keep inflation to 2 per cent a year, this means bonds offer a real (after inflation) yield of more than 2 percentage points - for the first time in ages. Does this mean they are a serious option for your portfolio?
Is there a dangerous bubble in China's sovereign bonds?
The People’s Bank of China has been worried about a bubble forming in the country’s sovereign bond market. So worried that it intervened in the market: borrowing several hundred billion renminbi of long-dated bonds that it can sell into the market to try to satisfy demand. The central bank fears that regional banks may be buying at too high a price, creating problems if the value of their holdings suddenly drops - a crisis similar to that which caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last year.
Can Emerging Market Bonds Keep Outperforming?
Resilient economies and domestic reforms have helped emerging market bonds outperform western counterparts. Argentina’s bonds have been among the top performers, as investors have welcomed a radical austerity package and deregulation by incoming president Javier Milei. Meanwhile, dollar bonds in Sri Lanka, Ghana and Zambia have all delivered double-digit returns this year as they enter the final phase of their debt restructuring processes. Significant support from the IMF and other official creditors has also reduced the likelihood of more sovereign debt defaults. So are these the bonds to hold for the best total returns in months and years ahead?
Are Junk Bonds too Risky if Interest Rates Stay High?
Fixed-income investors have been selling out of the US junk bonds and switching to higher-quality debt, as fears persist over a much longer period of high interest rates and a surge in bankruptcies. They seem worried about companies potentially losing access to funding and defaulting on their debt as borrowing costs stay high. Market expectations for US interest rates have swung wildly in 2024: in January, investors were expecting six or seven rate cuts in the year; they are currently pricing in about two quarter-percentage-point cuts. Does that make junk bonds too risky?
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